Alt-BEAM Archive
Message #03493
To: "Mark W. Tilden" mwtilden@math.uwaterloo.ca
From: Bob Shannon bshannon@tiac.net
Date: Fri, 21 May 1999 20:10:57 -0700
Subject: [alt-beam] Re: Evolution Comparison
Mark W. Tilden wrote:
>
> >> According to Hans Moravec, robot evolution is going approximately 10
> >> million times faster than biological evolution did. Therefore, he
> >predicts
> >> that within fifty years or so, we will have made an artificial human.
>
> >Exactly so, and why? because humans work as a TEAM, the process would
> >take 10 million times as long if only 1 person was doing it.
Or because humans can be motivated by huge profits!!!
50 years? Maybe, there is a lot of money to be had....
> But unlike nature which has specific and very harsh survival
> guidelines, the technological efforts of mankind are diffuse, not
> usually cumulative, and rarely in favor of the machine. The evolution
> of biologicals focuses on their own interest where the mainstream
> evolution of devices focuses only on human interest, which, let's face
> it, doesn't give a damn about the technology so long as it works.
Thats an inaccurate generalization I think. If you look at technology
that
is under competitive stress, evolution is very clear.
There was a quantum leap in firearms technology, or the computer
industry as
a whole.
And as far as giving a damn about the technology, please go drive a fine
German sports car, or better still, fly a small, overpowered Grumman
aircraft!
Technology does evolve, given the same competitive environment that
biological evolution thrives in, plenty of resources, time, and
competitive pressure!
> Evolution can only yield a result if it's consistent and directed
> towards the selfish autonomoid. So long as the machines exclusively
> serve their Gods, I've predicted they won't go anywhere outside the
> laboratory or moviescreen. In my opinion, fifty years sounds pretty
> optimistic, unless we can get a better grip on this BEAM thing.
But they already have! They are on Mars after all. Thats pretty far
from a lab. Why discount the evolution of 'conventional' robotics,
already a growing industry turning very real profits?
> Yes, Moravec and myself have debated this at length. He doesn't get
> it, but anyone who's every tried to run a new computer with an old
> printer might understand.
>
> Later.
>
> markt.
Yep, technology does evolve just as it is, and old printers are often
best turning into new 'bots!
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