Alt-BEAM Archive

Message #03483



To: mwtilden@math.uwaterloo.ca
From: JVernonM@aol.com
Date: Fri, 21 May 1999 14:29:40 EDT
Subject: [alt-beam] Re: Evolution Comparison


In a message dated 5/21/99 12:30:48 PM Eastern Daylight Time,
mwtilden@math.uwaterloo.ca writes:

> Evolution can only yield a result if it's consistent and directed
> towards the selfish autonomoid. So long as the machines exclusively
> serve their Gods, I've predicted they won't go anywhere outside the
> laboratory or moviescreen. In my opinion, fifty years sounds pretty
> optimistic, unless we can get a better grip on this BEAM thing.
>
I'm not sure I agree. Evolution of the automaton is directly connected to
it's value as a human tool. All machines are human tools. One could even go
so far as to say humans now quantify their very worth as humans through the
ownership and utilization of machines. To say the automaton will only evolve
when we build them for them, is mistaken. We don't even care about the
biological automatons scurrying around the small strips of wilderness left to
them. Machines evolve because there is a perceived need for them. They spread
and become common place when the need gives way to cultural integration,
i.e., the automobile. I think Sony and Honda have the right approach here,
they present their product for those that want it (and can afford it).
Ultimately, the product will become something people need (workforce,
servitude, hazardous environments, status symbol, etc.) and dramatically drop
in price. Once the mechanism reaches the stage of social status symbol, then
it becomes yet another machine deeply ingrained into our collective social
physique. Then it will begin to evolve into very complex systems, again, like
the automobile.
Sometimes I think we have the cart before the horse here. I don't think
living machines will lead to consumer, and industry bots. I think consumer
and industry bots will eventually lead to living machines. One more time with
the automobile comparison. First, they were made cheap and available to all
to fill a specific need. Then, as the popularity and mechanics evolved,
others jumped on the bandwagon and the auto became the life blood of
manufacturing and service oriented industries. This lead to small groups
testing the limits of the machines in auto racing and off road induros. This
accumulated up until present day, where many could not live without their
horseless carriage. The evolution came from a basic need to get around.
Industrial robotic populations have exploded in recent years because of a
need for cheap reliable labor. The personal robot is coming too. But, it's
being marketed to fill a need - entertainment. I predict that in the next 20
years we will see the evolution of the automaton originally designed to fill
a need, but taken to another level by enthusiasts who see another need. The
model T soon evolved into trucks, motorcycles, RVs, eighteen wheelers, etc.
One could even say it lead directly to the aviation industry and aerospace.
The Honda humanoid as well as the Sony dog and the Hoover robotic vacuum, are
the first steps in the right direction. Find a need, fill it, and let the
market run with it. If it is viable it will grow to become a part of human
identity. If not, it will disappear like the dinosaurs. That is how machine
evolution works. It relies heavily on it's place in the economic system.
Birds and bees evolve because they breed and adapt. Machines evolve because
they are profitable. The bail out of Apple by Microsoft is a good example.
Arguably, the Mac OS is a better system, but they almost folded. Why, because
they misunderstood the market. Often machine evolution does not favor the
better machine but the better marketing director. If BEAM is going to get
there it really needs to find it's place in the market other than a hobby.
Which brings me to another topic to long to go into here.
Jim

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